Third-quarter GDP expected to have risen by 15.5%

The Chancellor’s "eat out to help out" scheme, launched in August, drove a rise in consumer confidence, and with it GDP, between July and September, analysts believe. Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics , said without this increase in hospitality spending the 2.1% month-on-month growth in August would have been closer to the modest rise he expects took place in September, of 0.9%. Goodwin expects the continued reopening of the economy in July and the return of pupils to school in September will have pushed third-quarter GDP up by 15.5%.

philip shaw of Investec puts his estimate at 15.8% following a more optimistic growth forecast for September of 1.5%. The Office for National Statistics will on Thursday reveal the GDP growth rate for September and, with it, the figure for the entire third quarter.

As reported in The Observer